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Euro relieved for now, more headwind ahead

Dated Posted: 2011-09-15

SYDNEY, Sept 15 - The euro held on to gains against the greenback in another volatile session on Thursday, boosted by stronger stocks and calming words from European leaders about Greece's future, but sentiment remains extremely fragile.

The euro, last at $1.3743 , jumped to a three-day peak of $1.3873, after Germany and France voiced their commitment to keeping Greece in the euro zone.

U.S. stocks rose on the news, up 1 percent on the day, while S&P futures gained 1.47 percent.

The European joint statement brought some relief and helped bolster confidence that Greece will receive the next tranche of aid from the EU/IMF and avoid imminent default.

Investors have been worried about the growing prospect of a Greek debt default due to the failure of the cash-strapped nation to meet the fiscal goals set out in its bailout.

The single currency's recovery was further helped after European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso flagged plans to soon introduce common euro bonds. The project, however, is highly likely to meet stiff resistance from Germany.

But the euro remains vulnerable as European leaders seem to only bring short-term solutions to the table. The single currency has lost nearly 6 percent since August 28.

"Markets were a bit too bullish," said Joseph Capurso, currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

"Nothing has changed. Greece is still highly likely to have to do more structuring," he said. He expected the euro to slip to as far as $1.3640 by the end of the week.

For now, support is found at $1.3585, while resistance stands at the July 12 trough of $1.3835. A break of that could see the euro retrace to the 38.2 percent Fibonacci of the $1.4550/$1.3494 move at $1.3898, before fresh selling emerges.

The dollar index edged down 0.05 percent to 76.880, from a high of 77.486. Against the yen, the dollar slipped to 76.69 yen , but remains within the snug 76.40/77.85 range of the last three weeks.

Talk of foreign investors pulling money out of Asia on concerns another global credit crunch may be looming could weigh on the session. Earlier in the week, traders reported heavy fund selling of Asian currencies.

Markets are also on guard ahead of a possible downgrade of Italy.

The New Zealand dollar slipped 40 pips to $0.8181 , after a dovish-sounding statement by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand . As expected, the central bank left rates on hold at 2.5 percent.

Figures on China's foreign direct investment and U.S. CPI are due later, along with euro zone inflation and jobs.  

Source:  Reuters