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REFILE-FOREX-Euro bounce pauses, plenty of risk ahead

Dated Posted: 2011-09-28

SYDNEY, Sept 28 - The euro consolidated gains in Asia on Wednesday as investors clung to hopes European leaders were making progress on a major debt deal, even if it was behind the scenes, though a late pullback on Wall Street could augur a choppy session.

The euro was hovering at $1.3580, having climbed as far as $1.3665 at one stage overnight. The common currency has still lost 5.5 percent so far this month but is off an eight-month low of $1.3360 hit on Monday.

It was firmer against the yen at 104.24 , having bounced from a decade low at 101.90 yen earlier in the week.

U.S. equities rose for a third day but heavy paring in the last 90 minutes of the session could suggest the risk rally is running out of steam.

Disagreements, particularly from Germany which is not that enthused about expanding the 440 billion euros-EFSF fund, may weigh heavily on an already fragile sentiment.

Traders cited a Financial Times report that a split had opened over Greece's bailout terms, in a clear reminder of the many hurdles laying ahead for euro zone officials. Dealers suspect the bounce was merely a temporary correction ahead of a fresh wave of risk aversion.

"Today's rebound could easily give way at some point," said ANZ in a research note.

"We saw a late reversal of some of last night's big risk on moves on reports that European leaders were not completely united on the planned policy response."

Technically, as long as the euro was stuck below $1.3670/1.3710 resistance the risk was for a break of $1.3540/.50 support and, more importantly, $1.3470 for a move to new lows in the $1.3250/00 area.

Finland will vote on the enlargement of the EU rescue fund, EFSF, agreed back in July later on Wednesday, while Germany's parliament votes on Thursday.

Risk currencies bounced with the Aussie up 1.2 percent at $0.9902, after reaching as high as $0.9985. It struck a 10-month trough of $0.9622 earlier in the week.

The dollar index edged down 0.7 percent to 77.793, off an eight-month peak of 78.863 struck on Monday.

The dollar was steady against the yen at 76.73 , though traders reported talk Japan could intervene this week ahead of the end of their financial half-year. The yen has gained 5.5 percent so far this year.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke gives a speech at 2100 GMT and might offer some reaction to the market's mostly negative response to last week's Operation Twist.

Any hint that even more easing is possible could help underpin risk appetite.

Traders will also keep an eye on EU and German inflation data along with U.S. durable goods figures due later on Wednesday.

 

Source: Reuters